I have concerns that market averages (like Nasdaq, S&P500) are masking challenges of affordability that's compounded by the Tariffs, unemployment and gradual emergence of stable & reliable countries. We are hitting record Delinquency in consumer debts (auto, student loan, credit card, etc) together with some corporate frauds (first brands, etc) and record $38T deficit.
The top 10% is responsible for 48% of spending. Mag7 is driving the growth with mostly overvaluation.
As an international investor, the falling USD is complicating matters.
I want every country to be successful, especially America and China.
I am hopeful that the market is going to hit more ATH as margin and leverage play continues. Leverage is dangerous. Let's hedge? What do you think?
Thank you for your perspective, it is a complex situation indeed. I will try to simplify it and answer to you.
In my opinion, headlines look great, but under the hood many stocks and households are strained.
Tariffs push prices up. Late payments are rising. A few mega names carry most gains. A weaker dollar muddies overseas returns. I personally keep a mix: steady winners plus cheap cash makers, a bit of energy and some non-US.
For now, I avoid heavy leverage. I watch how many stocks lead and whether credit is getting shaky.
I think this is a temporary situation, as everything so far in economy. Everything is cyclical. I am not afraid of these times, because these are great opportunities to gain wealth for people that know what they are doing. (Of course, who doesn’t know, they should pay professionals to help them, not risk their money randomly with no guidance).
Good article. Thanks for sharing
Thank you for reading. I am glad to hear it help you too. I appreciate your valuable input!
Thanks for sharing.
This is my latest investing article previewing the market starting 27Oct25
https://open.substack.com/pub/bkobog/p/exxonmobil-for-you-preview-of-the?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=18jsop
Thank you for your message, Benson! What was something that you think might be useful for you from my article?
Reminder about small cap.
I have concerns that market averages (like Nasdaq, S&P500) are masking challenges of affordability that's compounded by the Tariffs, unemployment and gradual emergence of stable & reliable countries. We are hitting record Delinquency in consumer debts (auto, student loan, credit card, etc) together with some corporate frauds (first brands, etc) and record $38T deficit.
The top 10% is responsible for 48% of spending. Mag7 is driving the growth with mostly overvaluation.
As an international investor, the falling USD is complicating matters.
I want every country to be successful, especially America and China.
I am hopeful that the market is going to hit more ATH as margin and leverage play continues. Leverage is dangerous. Let's hedge? What do you think?
Thank you for your perspective, it is a complex situation indeed. I will try to simplify it and answer to you.
In my opinion, headlines look great, but under the hood many stocks and households are strained.
Tariffs push prices up. Late payments are rising. A few mega names carry most gains. A weaker dollar muddies overseas returns. I personally keep a mix: steady winners plus cheap cash makers, a bit of energy and some non-US.
For now, I avoid heavy leverage. I watch how many stocks lead and whether credit is getting shaky.
I think this is a temporary situation, as everything so far in economy. Everything is cyclical. I am not afraid of these times, because these are great opportunities to gain wealth for people that know what they are doing. (Of course, who doesn’t know, they should pay professionals to help them, not risk their money randomly with no guidance).
Thanks for sharing.
Are you prepared for some correction, and then the economy should pick up again?
Appreciate your insights into this matter. As an overseas investor, I do not have a feel for the "pulse".
Wealth is transferred to those who know. Knowledge is power indeed.
What you’re describing is the cyclicality of markets.
Every asset goes through these phases, shaped by changing conditions and sentiment.
What truly matters is understanding the economic behavior and fundamental drivers behind it.
I actually cover this in my articles, depending on tje topic.
I also just shared a note on the current gold chart too.
If that interests you, it’s up on my page on Substack and on my X as well. ( Https://x.com/ymagnifycom )
Thanks for being a valuable contributor, Benson. We keep in touch!